Analytics firm GlobalData has forecast Indonesia's fixed communications services market revenue to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from $1.2 billion in 2022 to $1.7 billion by 2027.
This will mainly be driven by strong growth in fixed broadband service adoption, with GlobalData’s Indonesia Fixed Communication Forecast (Q1 2023) forecasting that circuit switched subscriptions are expected to drop at a CAGR of -2.6% CAGR over 2022-2027 as users continue to shift towards mobile and internet-based communication services.
The overall fixed voice service ARPU levels in both residential and business segments are also expected to drop from $0.36 to $0.27 and $2.75 to $2.05, respectively, between 2022 and 2027, which will lead to a considerable drop in total fixed voice service revenues.
Fixed broadband accounts, on the other hand, will grow at a robust CAGR of 10.6% over the forecast period, led by the rising adoption of high-speed fibre-optic broadband services. Fibre-to-home/business (FTTH/B) lines will go on to account for 93% of total fixed broadband accounts in the country by end of 2027, driven by the rising demand for high-speed broadband services and further expansion of fibre-optic networks in the country.
Pradeepthi Kantipudi, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “Cable and DSL's share in the overall fixed broadband lines will decline to reach 5.2% and 1.8%, respectively, by the end of forecast period. Telkom Indonesia is expected to lead both fixed voice and broadband service segments, by subscriptions over the forecast period 2022-2027.”
“Telkom Indonesia's strong footprint in the traditional circuit switched segment as well as in the VoIP segment will support its leadership position in the fixed voice services market. The operator’s strong position in the fixed broadband segment can be attributed to the ongoing modernization of its fixed infrastructure with fibre-optic networks across the nation.”